One number. Are you in the right shape for this market?

The score is descriptive, not prescriptive. It tells you how your portfolio compares to the historical shape that has tended to perform well in the current regime. It does NOT tell you what to buy, sell, or hold.

The distinction matters legally and practically. CryptoArrow operates under the publisher's exclusion to the Investment Advisers Act, which requires impersonal commentary. The same regime + the same portfolio shape produces the same score for every user.

The score is the sum of four components. Each has a maximum point value and a regime-dependent target range.

• Beta alignment (30 pts): your weighted-average beta-to-BTC vs. the ideal range for the regime. Full marks inside the range, decays linearly outside.
• Liquidity buffer (20 pts): your stablecoin % vs. the ideal range. Same shape.
• Narrative momentum (30 pts): exposure-weighted sector heat (held-sector heat-scores weighted by regime-specific rising-reward / cooling-penalty multipliers).
• Concentration discipline (20 pts): HHI of portfolio weights vs. the regime's concentration tolerance.

The bands are intentionally asymmetric. Only cleanly-positioned portfolios land in Aligned; Conflict is reserved for portfolios meaningfully out of step with the regime; Drifting is the most common state.

Each regime defines an ideal beta range, an ideal stablecoin range, a rising-narrative reward multiplier, a cooling-narrative penalty multiplier, and a concentration tolerance. Examples:

• Markup: ideal beta 1.0 to 1.4, stables 0 to 10%, narrative rising-reward 1.5×, concentration tolerated up to HHI 5,000.
• Distribution: ideal beta 0.6 to 1.0, stables 15 to 35%, cooling-narrative penalty 1.5×, concentration tolerated to HHI 2,500.
• Markdown: ideal beta 0.0 to 0.6, stables 30 to 70%, cooling-narrative penalty 2×, concentration tolerated to HHI 2,000.

These are heuristics drawn from how each regime has historically rewarded portfolio shape. They'll be revisited as more data accumulates.

• Recommend buying or selling any specific token.
• Account for off-platform holdings you haven't entered.
• Consider tax, fees, slippage, or custody risk.
• Predict future price movement of any asset.
• Personalize to your risk tolerance, time horizon, or financial situation.

The score is a quantification of one thing: alignment of portfolio shape with the regime's historical winning shape. One input among many.