The five stages
0 - 15
Dormant
15 - 35
Awakening
35 - 65
Building
65 - 85
Mainstream
85 - 100
Cooling
Higher index = further along the lifecycle = closer to a rotation point. The bands are non-overlapping so the index is monotonic across the cycle.
What each stage means
- Dormant: no meaningful momentum on either window. Pre-narrative state.
- Awakening: short-term momentum building, weekly action still narrow. Early movers entering.
- Building: broad participation, momentum confirming. The sweet spot of the cycle.
- Mainstream: weekly action strong but short-term decelerating. Late majority territory.
- Cooling: short-term momentum negative, breadth weakening. Rotation likely.
Inputs (v1)
We use the price-momentum signals already computed for sector heat scoring:
- Average 24h % price change across the sector's tokens.
- Average 7d % price change.
- The existing 0 to 100 sector heat score.
- Token count classified into the sector.
v2 will layer in 30-day momentum, on-chain TVL deltas, social mindshare, developer activity, and funding-round signals for a richer adoption-curve fit.
Classification logic
Heuristics applied in order. first match wins:
1. tokenCount === 0
→ Dormant (avoids fake stages from sparse sectors)
2. avg24h ≤ -3 AND avg7d ≤ 0
→ Cooling (short-term rolled over with weekly confirmation)
3. avg7d ≤ -5 AND avg24h ≤ +1
→ Cooling (weekly downtrend, no short-term recovery)
4. |avg24h| < 1.5 AND |avg7d| < 2
→ Dormant (both windows essentially flat)
5. avg24h > +1.5 AND avg7d ≤ +3
→ Awakening (short-term wake-up, weekly still narrow)
6. avg7d ≥ +12 AND avg24h < avg7d / 4
→ Mainstream (7d very strong but 24h decelerating)
7. avg24h > +1.5 AND avg7d > +3
→ Building (both positive and aligned)
8. otherwise → Awakening (conservative default)
Within each stage's band, the index is positioned by how strongly the sector expresses the stage's defining signal, stabilised by a small nudge from the existing heat score.
What this score does NOT do
- Issue buy/sell signals for any specific token.
- Predict when a sector will rotate. We tell you the stage; rotation timing is your call.
- Account for off-chain catalysts directly (regs, ETF launches, hacks). these shift the underlying price data which feeds the score, but with lag.
- Get backtested against historical retrospective labels yet. That backtest is a v2 task.